Reports that the administration of US President Donald Trump has considered suspending intelligence sharing and access to US-made weapons for Ukraine should still be treated cautiously, says former Finnish Defence Forces commander and MP Jarmo Lindberg.
Trump has stepped up pressure on Kyiv over Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries. According to the Financial Times, US officials have raised the possibility of cutting intelligence sharing and restricting Ukraine’s access to American weapons procured through the NATO-administered PURL mechanism.
Lindberg told Verkkouutiset that the situation remains unclear and that no formal decisions have yet been announced.
“This is fairly vague and partly speculative. So far, no actual decisions have been made,” he said.
If the reported threats were implemented, however, Lindberg says the consequences for Ukraine and Europe would be serious.
“These would both be serious matters if they happened,” he said.
Through PURL, European allies finance purchases of US weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. Lindberg says the arrangement is especially important for equipment that Europe cannot readily produce itself, with Patriot air-defence missiles being the most prominent example.
“Ukrainian-operated American weapons systems need ammunition and missiles. That is exactly where this kind of suspension would have an impact.”
Intelligence remains difficult to replace
Lindberg also points to intelligence sharing as a critical capability.
When Washington temporarily suspended intelligence support previously, European countries stepped in with information from their own systems. But Lindberg says it is unclear whether Europe is now better prepared to compensate for another interruption.
Intelligence affects both Ukraine’s offensive capabilities, including target identification, and its ability to receive early warning of Russian ballistic missile attacks, he said.
Replacing American weapons would be equally difficult.
European countries have already donated large quantities of equipment to Ukraine while simultaneously rebuilding their own armed forces and meeting NATO requirements. Defence production across Europe is also operating under heavy demand.
“There are some systems and capabilities — Patriot is the usual example — for which Europe simply does not manufacture an equivalent that could replace the American system,” Lindberg said.
PURL packages have typically been assembled every few months and are worth around $500 million each, with different European countries contributing to individual packages according to Ukraine’s needs.
Starlink restrictions add to uncertainty
The concerns over US support have been compounded by unexpected restrictions affecting Starlink satellite communications used by Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times that some Starlink and military-grade Starshield connections began failing or becoming unstable when systems were moving at higher speeds, disrupting drone missions and frontline logistics. Some missions had to be cancelled.
Ukrainian officials have not established publicly who ordered the restrictions or why. SpaceX and the White House did not respond to the newspaper’s requests for comment.
Trump has meanwhile denied that the United States has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, saying on Wednesday that Washington was still providing support.
For Lindberg, the broader issue is Europe’s continued dependence on American capabilities that cannot be replaced quickly if Washington were to reduce its support.