Europe must respond more forcefully to Russia’s increasingly aggressive hybrid campaign, according to Finnish MP and Doctor of Military Sciences Jarno Limnell.
“The line has now been reached,” Limnell wrote on X on Monday.
“Europe cannot endlessly settle for simply condemning these actions. Responding is a choice, but so is failing to respond. In Moscow, the latter is interpreted as weakness.”
Limnell, an MP for Finland’s governing National Coalition Party, argues that Russia is not merely testing European cyber security, air defence and critical infrastructure.
Above all, he says, Moscow is testing Europe’s political will and seeking to reshape the continent’s security order.
His assessment comes amid heightened concern over hybrid threats across Europe. NATO says Russia has intensified activities including sabotage, cyberattacks, electronic interference, disinformation and operations targeting critical infrastructure.
The EU has also expanded sanctions against individuals and entities linked to Russian destabilisation campaigns.
‘Deterrence requires costs’
Limnell says Europe should respond rapidly and visibly whenever hybrid attacks can be reliably attributed.
He lists additional sanctions, tighter restrictions on Russia’s so-called shadow fleet and action against hostile networks among the measures available.
“Deterrence only emerges when Russia knows that its actions will have consequences,” he said.
Limnell argues that NATO remains the foundation of Finland’s defence, but says cooperation between Poland and the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, or JEF, should also be strengthened.
He wants the countries involved to develop a shared situational picture, agree possible countermeasures in advance and be prepared to implement them rapidly.
The JEF itself has increasingly focused on hybrid threats. Its defence ministers said in October that member countries would continue developing joint responses to Russian hybrid activity and align their options more closely with NATO planning.
Air defence over western Ukraine?
Limnell also raises two significantly more ambitious military options that he says European governments should at least assess.
The first would be helping Ukraine protect the airspace over the western part of the country with a multilayered air-defence system.
Limnell acknowledges that such a step would be a major military decision involving significant risks.
He therefore says its military feasibility and the conditions under which it could be implemented would have to be thoroughly examined before any decision.
His second proposal would be to assess whether Ukraine could, under separately agreed arrangements, use the airspace of allied countries for operations directed against Russia.
Such an arrangement would require decisions by the countries concerned as well as detailed legal and military assessments, Limnell stresses.
He does not present either option as an immediate policy decision, but argues that Europe should no longer rule out difficult alternatives in advance.
“The purpose is not to expand the war but to prevent further aggression and protect European security,” Limnell said.
“Nothing changes the Kremlin’s calculations like a united Europe that is prepared to act.”
Europe on alert
Limnell’s comments come only days after an unusual wave of hoax bomb threats disrupted dozens of passenger flights across Europe.
Aircraft were diverted, searched and in several cases escorted by military fighter jets. Ryanair, Finnair, Aer Lingus and several other airlines were among those affected.
Authorities had not established who was behind the threats, and no government had attributed the campaign to Russia. European officials and security specialists have nevertheless examined the incidents against the wider backdrop of growing concern over hybrid disruption.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in October that the alliance has a range of options available for responding to hybrid attacks, while deliberately leaving unclear when and how those responses might be used.
Limnell argues that Europe now needs to demonstrate that readiness through actions rather than statements alone.