North Korea could emerge as one of the biggest winners of the war in Ukraine, according to Rick Hoehne, a former US military and Pentagon official.
Although North Korea is not officially a party to the conflict, Hoehne argues in an analysis published by the Atlantic Council that supporting Russia is benefiting the dictatorship militarily, economically and technologically.
Not all details of the defence cooperation formalised by Russia and North Korea in 2024 are known, but according to Hoehne, the partnership could have far-reaching consequences for the security situation in East Asia.
“North Korea is nevertheless benefiting significantly, both militarily and strategically, from the combat experience gained by its troops, arms sales, battlefield testing of its weapons systems, the funding it receives and possible technological assistance. These benefits could extend well beyond the war, strengthen North Korea’s military capabilities and potentially alter the strategic security environment in the Asia-Pacific region.”
Cooperation with Russia has strengthened both North Korea’s armed forces and its international position. Pyongyang is no longer as dependent on China as before, while Russia has reportedly paid North Korea billions in return for military support.
North Korean forces have also gained valuable combat experience on the Ukrainian front. Before their involvement in the current war, North Korean troops had not taken part in large-scale combat operations since the early 1950s.
An estimated 25,000 North Koreans have served in Russia over the past two years, and Ukraine has warned that North Korea could send another 30,000 to 50,000 troops to support Russia.
North Korean personnel have mainly been used in border security roles. According to Hoehne, the arrival of additional troops could free Russian forces for new offensive operations.
North Korea has also been able to test the effectiveness of its own weapons systems in Ukraine. The country is estimated to have supplied Russia with around 15 million artillery shells as well as missiles, multiple rocket launchers and other military equipment.
Russia is also suspected of having helped North Korea develop satellite technology and more advanced weapons systems.
Hoehne notes that feedback from the battlefield allows Pyongyang to further improve its weapons.
Although North Korea appears to have benefited from its cooperation with Russia, major questions still surround the partnership, Hoehne says.
“Many issues remain unresolved. How will China react to North Korea’s growing military capabilities? Stability on the Korean Peninsula is important to Beijing, and the Chinese leadership is unlikely to view the weakening of its influence over Kim Jong-un as a positive development.”
“Another key question is how durable the Russia-North Korea ‘limitless partnership’ really is, particularly if the need for military assistance created by the war in Ukraine comes to an end. What does this mean for US strategic planning and preparations for possible crises? And what does it mean for nuclear deterrence?”