Finland’s economy has returned to growth this year after a prolonged period of weakness, and the latest corporate earnings reports paint a cautiously positive picture.
The recovery remains uneven, however: export and investment-driven sectors are performing strongly, while a broader revival in the domestic market has yet to materialise.
“Growth in data centres and the mining industry is clearly visible. The related investments are feeding through to the order books of Finnish companies,” Pasi Kuoppamäki, chief economist at Miltton, told Verkkouutiset.
“Among Finnish companies, Nokia and Metso, for example, have been able to benefit from the increase in demand.”
The global investment wave is already reflected in Finnish companies’ order books, with manufacturers of capital goods among the main beneficiaries.
“Based on the earnings season, Finland’s economic growth currently relies above all on exports and investment, while the domestic market is clearly much weaker,” said Antti Saari, chief strategist at Nordea.
Corporate earnings reports do not provide a direct picture of the Finnish economy alone. A large share of the revenue of major companies listed in Helsinki is generated abroad, meaning their results often say more about international demand than conditions in Finland’s domestic market.
Consumer demand has yet to recover
Kuoppamäki described Finland’s September unemployment figures as disappointing. The trend unemployment rate rose from 10.1 percent in August to 10.5 percent in September.
“As the English saying goes, not all boats have risen yet. I believe there is a delay, and the recovery has not yet fed through to private consumption,” Kuoppamäki said.
The same divide can be seen in corporate results.
“Companies such as Terveystalo and Elisa are not yet showing a clear positive signal of a recovery in domestic demand.”
There are nevertheless some encouraging signs. The purchasing power of employed Finns is expected to improve by 2028, although that development has yet to become visible in listed companies’ results.
“At the same time, consumer confidence remains weak, and that is reflected in companies that depend on domestic demand,” Kuoppamäki said.
Saari sees the same pattern, although he stresses that large listed companies are not an ideal measure of consumer demand.
“The turnaround in the domestic market has not been as strong as one might have hoped.”
AI is emerging as a new engine of growth
Both economists identify artificial intelligence and the investments surrounding it as a major source of growth in the coming years.
According to Kuoppamäki, the investment boom is already feeding into Finnish companies’ order books.
“The investment boom is spilling over to Finnish companies that are in a position to benefit from it,” he said.
Saari expects the trend to continue well into the future.
“The AI investment cycle is likely to continue for quite some time.”
He argues that this is not simply a single technology trend but a broad investment wave generating demand across several industries at once.
The effects are being felt first in export- and investment-driven sectors, but they are expected to spread more widely through the economy over time. This means Finland’s current growth cycle is not primarily being driven by domestic consumption, but by investment that could support expansion for several years.
Geopolitical risks and higher energy prices remain sources of uncertainty for companies, although their impact appears to have diminished.
“The crises have not disappeared, but their shock effect seems to have weakened. Companies have learned to operate amid uncertainty,” Saari said.
Investors expect growth to continue next year
The most important message from the current earnings season may concern not the previous quarter, but the year ahead.
Corporate outlooks, market pricing and order-book developments indicate that investors expect growth to continue next year.
“At the moment, practically all the key leading indicators suggest that earnings growth will continue next year as well,” Saari said.
According to him, growth is no longer being driven by only a handful of industries or companies. Instead, its foundations have become broader.
“Next year could well turn out to be a stronger-than-average year for earnings growth, provided investment continues at its current pace and the global economy avoids major disruptions.”
The economists broadly agree on the direction of the economy. Based on the latest earnings reports, growth appears likely to continue next year.
The open question is when an export- and investment-led recovery will begin to reach ordinary Finns through stronger employment, wage growth and a revival in consumption.
“The growth is real, but it has not yet reached the labour market or domestic demand,” Kuoppamäki concluded.