Ukraine has turned what was once one of Russia’s most threatening advances in northern Donetsk Oblast into a local counteroffensive that is forcing Moscow to reconsider its plans.
The Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps has spent months conducting Operation Vivaldi north and northeast of Lyman, largely under an information blackout.
By mid-October, Ukrainian forces said they had reclaimed around 277 square kilometres and 16 settlements. The operation used small infantry groups, drones and systematic clearing actions to dismantle Russian infiltration zones rather than relying on the kind of large mechanised breakthrough seen earlier in the war.
The key appears to have been timing, according to the Kyiv Independent.
Roman Pohorilyi, co-founder of the Ukrainian battlefield monitoring project DeepState, said Russian resources in the area had become depleted and Ukrainian forces seized the resulting tactical opportunity.
According to DeepState, Operation Vivaldi allowed Ukraine to cut off the Russian salient north of Lyman, where Moscow had been trying to reinforce positions around Shandryholove and push through the forests near Yampil and Zarichne.
The Institute for the Study of War now describes Russia’s original plan in this sector as having suffered an operational defeat, although it notes that Moscow has not formally abandoned its broader objective of taking Lyman and enveloping Ukraine’s remaining fortress cities in Donetsk Oblast from the north.
Russia is still trying to get back in
The fighting around Lyman is far from over.
Russian troops continued attacking in the sector on October 28, but Ukraine’s General Staff reported that five assaults near Nadiia, Kolodiazi, Lyman and Dibrova were stopped.
ISW also assessed that Russian troops had recently carried out another infiltration attempt north of Lyman, showing that Moscow is still looking for ways to regain lost ground rather than abandoning the sector.
DeepState has warned that the wider threat to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk has not disappeared. After losing momentum north of Lyman, Russian forces have increasingly looked for openings farther south, including around Rai-Oleksandrivka.
That makes Operation Vivaldi important beyond the territory itself.
Russia has sought to envelop the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk–Druzhkivka–Kostiantynivka urban belt rather than simply storming it head-on. The Lyman axis formed the northern arm of that effort. Ukraine’s counterattack has pushed that arm back and forced Russia to find another route.
Another Ukrainian counterattack threatens Russian logistics
Ukraine is also applying pressure farther south.
ISW reported on October 28 that Ukrainian forces had recently advanced southeast of Oleksandrivka, moving around Novomykolaivka after previously clearing Zaporizke.
The advances matter because they bring Ukrainian forces closer to Russian supply routes serving Velyka Novosilka, an important logistics hub supporting Moscow’s operations in southern Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Russian military bloggers have themselves warned that continued Ukrainian counterattacks towards Velyka Novosilka could complicate operations across a much wider section of the southern front.
Russia has reportedly deployed elite drone operators from its Rubikon unmanned-systems unit to the area in an effort to stabilise the situation.
ISW also reported Ukrainian advances northeast of Huliaipole around Uspenivka and Pavlivka.
The situation across Zaporizhzhia Oblast is considerably more mixed, however. Russia continues to attack heavily in the Huliaipole sector, and Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState reported Russian advances near Vozdvyzhivka and Luhivske on October 28.
This means reports on social media of a major Ukrainian surge around Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka should still be treated cautiously. Ukraine’s General Staff reported only one Russian attack in the Orikhiv sector on October 28 and did not report a major Ukrainian breakthrough there.
No general Russian collapse
Ukraine’s gains around Lyman and Velyka Novosilka do not mean that Russia has lost the initiative across the entire front.
The heaviest fighting remains farther south in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukraine recorded 42 Russian attacks on the Pokrovsk axis and another 18 around Kostiantynivka during October 28 alone. ISW has also confirmed recent Russian advances north of Kostiantynivka.
The emerging picture is therefore not one of a sweeping Ukrainian breakthrough.
Instead, Ukrainian forces appear to be increasingly capable of identifying overstretched or depleted sections of the Russian line and launching carefully prepared local counterattacks before Moscow can reinforce them.
Near Lyman, that method has already erased a Russian salient that had threatened one of Ukraine’s most important defensive regions. And as the fighting shifts into winter, Russia now has to decide where it can afford to move reserves, and where another weak spot might appear next.