Ukraine’s General Staff said on Monday that Russian forces had suffered their highest daily personnel losses since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
According to the Ukrainian military, around 2,500 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded within 24 hours. The previous daily record was 2,250 casualties, reported last Wednesday.
Ukrainian outlet The Kyiv Independent reported that October as a whole was the deadliest month for the Russian military since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Ukraine estimates that Russian forces suffered around 54,500 killed and wounded during the month.
The Economist has separately published estimates pointing to similarly severe losses. According to the newspaper, Russia may have suffered a total of between 1.4 million and 2.1 million battlefield casualties, including an estimated 374,000 to 770,000 deaths.
Ukrainian losses are estimated to be substantially lower.
At the same time, Russia’s advance has stalled. Ukrainian forces are estimated to have retaken around 73 square kilometres of occupied territory over the past three months, equivalent to roughly half of the territory Russia has captured this year.
A former Ukrainian officer known for his analysis of the war nevertheless warns that Moscow still appears capable of bringing fresh personnel to the front.
“Russian losses remain consistently high across multiple units and at levels comparable to 2025 and the first half of 2026. Yet Russia still appears able to replenish its units with new manpower, even though overall recruitment numbers are declining,” wrote the former officer known by the pseudonym Tatarigami, founder of the Frontelligence Insight analytical group.
He said the decline in recruitment appears gradual rather than dramatic.
Frontelligence says its assessment is based on information from multiple sources, including captured Russian documents.
The group’s findings suggest that Moscow is prioritising the financing and equipment of drone units.
“These units are receiving increasing numbers of drones and increasingly advanced models as the war continues. At the same time, many newly formed units are falling behind because of the rapid development of drone formations,” Tatarigami wrote.
Despite the heavy personnel losses, the analysis suggests that Russia’s leadership still views the broader strategic situation as “reasonably favourable”.
According to Tatarigami, that assessment appears to be driven partly by the perception that the United States has reduced its support for Ukraine and that Europe lacks unity over sustaining long-term assistance.
“This assessment appears to be fuelled by the perception that the United States has reduced its support for Ukraine and that Europe is not seen as united in its commitment to supporting Ukraine over the long term,” he wrote.