Russia has shifted its approach in Ukraine, increasingly relying on sustained long-range strikes designed to damage critical infrastructure and weaken civilian morale, according to Estonia’s military intelligence chief.
Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, says Moscow is targeting railway infrastructure, bridges across the Dnipro River and other facilities essential to everyday life and the Ukrainian economy.
The change comes as Russian forces continue to suffer heavy losses while making limited progress on the battlefield. Kiviselg said there had been around 200 combat engagements a day over the past week, with the heaviest fighting continuing around Pokrovsk, Konstantynivka, Lyman and other sectors of eastern and southern Ukraine.
According to Kiviselg, Russian personnel losses have averaged around 1,700 killed or wounded a day, marking a sixth consecutive week in which weekly losses have exceeded 10,000.
“In response, Russia is slightly changing its pattern of behaviour,” he says to public broadcaster ERR, arguing that Moscow is trying to undermine Ukrainian unity through intensive and prolonged long-range strikes.
Railways and bridges targeted
Kiviselg says Russian attacks have repeatedly targeted bridges across the Dnipro in both Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia. The apparent aim is not only to disrupt transport but also to intimidate civilians and put additional pressure on the Ukrainian economy.
Ukraine is responding by strengthening the protection of key crossings. According to Kiviselg, Kyiv has begun deploying AI-assisted air defence systems around bridges and is considering contingency measures, including pontoon crossings, should major bridges be closed for extended periods.
Rail transport is another increasingly important target.
More than 500 Ukrainian locomotives have been damaged during the war, Kiviselg said. Sixty per cent of those strikes have occurred this year, while attacks on railway infrastructure are already 40 per cent higher than during all of 2025.
Former Estonian ambassador to NATO Jüri Luik sees the same development as evidence of Russia’s difficulties on the ground.
He told ERR that Russia has failed to achieve a breakthrough at the front while Ukrainian forces have begun retaking territory in some areas. That leaves Moscow increasingly dependent on long-range bombardment, he argued.
Luik says Russia appears to be testing whether systematic destruction of bridges, energy infrastructure and other civilian facilities could eventually make Ukrainian cities uninhabitable enough to break public resistance.
He considers that unlikely.
“The bombing will certainly continue, but it will not break the Ukrainians’ resolve,” Luik says.
Ukraine is striking Russia’s fuel industry
Ukraine, meanwhile, has continued long-range strikes of its own, focusing heavily on Russia’s fuel and energy infrastructure.
Kiviselg said Ukrainian attacks have hit facilities in the Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara and Moscow regions, as well as military targets in Russian-occupied territory and elsewhere inside Russia.
The effects are becoming visible in Russian fuel exports, he said. Black Sea ports exported an average of around 200,000 tonnes of fuel per week in 2025, but according to public data cited by Kiviselg, those shipments fell to zero during the third week of September.
Diesel and gas-oil exports have instead continued through the Baltic port of Primorsk at a much lower level.
Kiviselg also rejected Moscow’s claims of major territorial gains. He said Russia has not moved closer to its stated objective of occupying the whole of Donetsk region, while Ukrainian counterattacks have reclaimed territory in several sectors.