According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the effects of Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations are now being felt across several interconnected sectors of the front.
In its October 14 assessment, ISW did not record any confirmed Russian or Ukrainian advances anywhere along the main front during the previous day.
That does not mean the fighting has subsided. Ukraine’s General Staff reported 260 combat engagements on October 14, with Russian pressure remaining particularly intense in the Pokrovsk sector, where 35 assaults were recorded. Another 22 attacks took place in the Kostyantynivka sector.
By contrast, Russian forces carried out no ground attacks in the Kramatorsk direction and only two in the Slovyansk sector.
The most significant shift has taken place around Lyman, where Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps has been conducting the months-long Operation Vivaldi.
Brigadier General Andriy Biletskyi, commander of the corps, said on October 14 that the fourth phase of the operation had been completed. Ukrainian forces recaptured the villages of Zelena Dolyna, Lypove and Kolodyazi, along with another 101 square kilometres of territory, according to the corps.
Ukraine says it has now regained a total of 277 square kilometres and 16 settlements during the four phases of Vivaldi.
The Ukrainian battlefield monitoring project DeepState confirmed that the three latest villages had returned to Ukrainian control and also reported Ukrainian advances around Stavky and Shandryholove.
At the end of September, the publicly announced result of the operation stood at 176 square kilometres, meaning Ukrainian forces have continued to make substantial gains since then.
ISW assesses that Vivaldi’s impact extends well beyond the territory shown on the map.
Russia’s Western Grouping of Forces has been forced to redeploy elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army from the Kupyansk sector toward Lyman, easing some of the pressure around Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.
According to ISW, Ukraine’s counteroffensive has also disrupted Russia’s attempt to outflank the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk fortified belt from the north. Effects are visible both north of Lyman in the Borova sector and farther south, east of Slovyansk.
The decline in Russian assault activity illustrates the change. ISW says Russian forces conducted an average of about 14 attacks per day in the Slovyansk sector in August. That figure fell to five in September and to roughly three per day in early October.
In the Kramatorsk sector, the rate dropped from around three daily assaults in August to one in September and just 0.3 per day in October.
ISW assesses that Ukraine’s long-term shaping operations and the knock-on effects of Vivaldi are among the main reasons for the slowdown. The think tank says Ukrainian counterattacks could potentially prevent Russia from advancing toward Slovyansk from the east altogether.
Counterattacks continue farther south
Ukraine’s counteroffensive activity is not limited to Lyman. In southwestern Donetsk Oblast, around the Oleksandrivka sector and the former Velyka Novosilka front, Ukrainian troops have been pushing Russian positions back toward the Mokryi Yaly River.
In its October 12 assessment, ISW cited Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets as saying that Ukrainian troops had advanced from Shevchenko toward Burlatske and Vilne Pole and had reached the Mokryi Yaly at several points. Ukrainian forces were conducting counterattacks on both sides of the river.
A day later, ISW confirmed that Ukrainian forces had recently advanced southwest of Fedorivka. Counterattacks continued in the directions of Fedorivka and Komar.
Russian sources have also reported Ukrainian attempts to advance through Perebudova and across the Mokryi Yaly, although not all of these claims have been independently verified.
Claims that Ukraine has fully secured Komar or other individual settlements therefore remain too uncertain to present as confirmed. The broader picture of Ukrainian advances toward the Mokryi Yaly line, however, is supported by ISW’s assessments.
The Russian front is not collapsing, though. The area around Pokrovsk remains one of the most heavily contested parts of the battlefield, while Russian forces continue intensive attacks in the Kostyantynivka and Huliaipole sectors. Moscow may also use the current slower phase to regroup for another push.
Operation Vivaldi demonstrates that Russia no longer holds an uncontested initiative across every part of the Donetsk front.
According to ISW, Ukraine has been able to combine months of strikes against Russian logistics and drone units with ground operations in a way that has forced Moscow to alter the deployment of its forces in neighbouring sectors as well.
A potential new obstacle to these operations emerged on October 14, when Ukraine reported that the Starshield satellite communications service had been restricted on equipment moving faster than 160 kilometres per hour.
The system is used on Ukrainian drones, including those conducting strike and air-defence missions.
The disruption proved temporary. A source in Ukraine’s Defence Ministry confirmed to international media on the next day that Starshield had been fully restored and was again operating normally in Ukraine.
Starshield is a satellite communications system designed for military and intelligence applications and developed by Elon Musk’s SpaceX. It is separate from Starlink, the company’s commercial service for consumers and businesses.
Musk said that decisions on Starshield speed or usage restrictions are made by the US military and ultimately the US president. Ukrainian officials have not disclosed what caused the temporary restrictions.